Wednesday, February 25, 2009

Where is the bottom to this market?

That's the million dollar (actually much more) question right? Obviously it's rhetorical in nature, nobody knows for sure. But if you are like me you are already worried and are getting tired of reading bad news. I came across a recent article on Kiplinger.com by Steven Goldberg, titled "How bad can it get?" Mr. Goldberg makes the case for things not being as bad as they are. His reasoning? He says you need to factor in dividends when computing total returns. Here are a couple of compelling points from the article (when factoring in dividends):

The S&P 500 lost 29% from the end of November 1968 through June 1970. But it took just nine months -- until March 1971 -- for investors who had bought stocks at the peak to break even.

The 1973-74 selloff was one of the three worst bear markets since the Great Depression. The market plunged 43% from January 1973 through September 1974. If you had invested at the precise top, you would have made all your money back by June 1976 -- less than two years after the trough.

For long-term investors, the data about the Great Depression is heartening. If you're 45 or younger, and planning to work another 20 years or so, you can justify investing all of your retirement money in stocks. That is, unless you think this market collapse will be worse than the Great Depression, something that strikes me as utter nonsense. And, by the way, the S&P 500 now yields 3.4%, the highest level it's been at in years, because of the sharp decline in share prices and despite a raft of dividend cuts. That should help boost long-term future returns.


You can read the complete article here. Now I'm not suggesting that any of us read Mr. Goldberg's article and jump whole heartedly back into the market. But it is always a good thing to consider several perspectives when planning your investment strategies and high dividend ETFs certainly seem like a logical choice for a potential investment.

I did a quick internet search and came up with several high yield ETFs (yield data is from Yahoo Finance as of 2/25/09):

  • Vanguard High Yield Dividend ETF(NYSE:VYM) currently yields 4.95%

  • State Street Dividend SPDR (AMEX:SDY)currently yields 6.27%

  • Powershares High Yield Equity Dividend Achievers Portfolio(AMEX:PEY) currently yields 8.99%

Please keep in mind these ETF yields look so good because the price per share has decreased significantly (more than 20% for each of these ETFs YTD as of 2/25/09).

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